Super Bowl ...................

Feb 01, 2020
football betting tips -
 
 
NFL: Super Bowl LIV : Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida.
 
 
San Francisco 49ers- Kansas City Chiefs
 
 
We have a classic game in prospect between two explosive offenses, the Niners do it mostly on the ground, but in a manner unlike any other team (more of that shortly) and the Chiefs, who can rack up points as quickly as any team in the NFL,  do almost all the damage through the air. Defensively the 49ers have been solid all season and I can make a very strong claim for them being the best team in football without the ball, the Chiefs were hugely improved in this department during the course of this season and again, we shall return to that during these notes. Just a cigarette paper between the two teams on betting lines and this is a game you could just sit back and savour without the need to bet, but that is not how we roll and I think I have come up with really great plays for the game of the season .
 
I might as well put all my cards on the table from the get go and say that I think the Niners are the better team, should be favoured in my opinion and that they are good value at current odds to win. That will not surprise regular readers of  clubgowi notes, they have been my main Super Bowl pick since early mid season and if you have followed all the NFL red type selections this season, you are sitting on a massive 52 point potential profit should the Niners win.
 
Let's start by going back to October and the first time I really bigged up the 49ers, in the NFL it is always best to be first, or to do something which no one else does, I can give you a recent example and that is head coach Doug Pederson who won a Super Bowl for the Eagles two years ago with his super aggressive play calling and willingness to go for it on 4th down, almost regardless of position on the field . That has changed the way teams play football, but Pederson was first and got his just reward. My thinking about the Niners was that they were doing something no one else was able to do and that was hit teams with a three pronged running attack and following a Week 4 MNF win over the Cleveland Browns I wrote ..................
 

To say I was impressed with the Niners is an understatement, they look the real deal and are only going to get better as they had those two key players out and they have not fully tested Jimmy Garoppolo their quarterback yet,they believe in him, that is not an issue, they just have not needed him. The SF Chronicle wrote this Thursday: 

 

Jimmy Garoppolo just wins.

Garoppolo is 12-2 as a starter, including 4-0 this season as the San Francisco 49ers lead the NFC West. He's a win away from tying Dan Marino, Kurt Warner, Philip Rivers, Mike Tomczak and Dak Prescott for third-most wins through 15 starts. Only Roger Staubach (14) and Ben Roethlisberger (15) had more.

Garoppolo earned his first two wins with New England while Tom Brady served a suspension. He didn't get another start until he was traded to the 49ers during the 2017 season and went 5-0 down the stretch for a 6-10 team.

His performance convinced San Francisco to give him a $137.5 million contract. He lasted just three games in 2018, going 1-2 before suffering a torn ACL. But Garoppolo is healthy again and back to his winning ways.

It helps that he has the NFL's best run offense. The Niners are averaging 200 yards rushing per game.

That last line is part of the reason they have not had to call on Jimmy G too often. The Niners are giving up the second fewest first downs in the NFL, they have the #5 ranked defense against the run, the #2 versus the pass, they have the #1 ranked offense running, only Baltimore are even close to their 200 yards pg, it is 34 more than the third best team in the league. Today they play a good team in the Rams, but SF are giving up 7.4 first downs less than LA, next biggest differential in any match up today is 4.8 and after that 3.2 ! They are allowing 4.3 points less in the first half and 8.2 (!) in the second than the Rams and I do not see LA having the ball enough to do sufficient damage to this Niners team today and to be honest, I am VERY excited by SF.

The offense is clicking like never before under  head coach Kyle Shanahan, they’re top five in yards per game, rushing yards and points per game. They rushed for those 200 yards, despite losing Tevin Coleman for two starts, he returned v the Browns, rushing for 97 yards on 16 carries with a touchdown, this is a team with running options the like of which we may never have seen before. This is what really gets me excited, the NFL is a passing game now, but the Niners do something no one else does, it is not really a throwback, as it is so explosive and no less dynamic than the pass , it also means teams are not used to seeing or dealing with it and the Niners are ahead of the game. They have always been an innovative franchise, think of the West Coast offense under Bill Walsh, I spent a lot of time in SF then and Montana to Rice was a thing of beauty.

The Niners defense is playing with an intensity we have not seen for so long in SF and they have 11 turnovers through four games, after just 7 all season in 2018. Kwon Alexander was a very big acquisition in the off season and brought some oomph with him, he recorded three tackles in the first quarter against Tampa Bay before being ejected, but then followed up with six and seven tackles the following two weeks. Fred Warner continues to rack up tackles too with 25 on the season to follow a rookie year where he finished with 124.So many plus points, amongst the Tight Ends especially, if there is a weakness, everyone comes up with the wide receivers, but Dante Pettis came up big when required against the Steelers and as I started by saying, the receivers and Jimmy G have not been required to do much yet.

If there is value in the Super Bowl betting at this stage it is surely with the Niners, they are 4-0 for the season and the franchise has advanced to at least the NFC Championship Game in each of the previous two seasons in which they started 4-0.

After that game I noted that............ they beat the Rams 20-7 keeping a decent LA team scoreless for three and a half quarters and, to just 10 first downs and 0-13 on third and 4th down attempts and 21:08 time of possession. Those numbers are through the roof and I just do not think people realise how good the Niners are already and better they might still be. To put those numbers into context, the Rams averaged over 22 first downs per game through their other 15 starts , six 3rd and 4th down conversions and an extra 9 minutes with the ball !

 
The backroom staff addressed that "weakness" shortly afterwards with the addition of wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders, who is already a Super Bowl winner, a move I called at the time a masterstroke.As good as that explosive running game is, you should never be too predictable in the NFL and Sanders, who has just shy of 600 yards receiving and 3 TD's just helps keep all opposing defenses honest. His biggest game was against the Saints ( 7 catches for 157 yards and a touchdown) who have an offense almost as dynamic as the Chiefs and there is that passing potential if this develops into a shootout.
 
SF lost three games this season, one was to the Falcons when they had six defensive starters out, the other two were to the Seahawks in overtime (where they also had some significant injury issues) and to the Ravens in Baltimore by 3 points, they could/should have won both.
 
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has only just turned 24 yo, he was named NFL MVP last season in his first year as starter and is a unique talent and the only QB in history to throw for 5,000 yards in a single season at both college and in the NFL. KC have and are, building a franchise around him, give him great protection and passing weapons like Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman and Travis Kelce, that have other quarterbacks drooling. They can run the ball to a degree, but were #22 on the ground through the regular season (only one other team ranked 16+ made the post season) and that is not really their thing and their version of the run is a short pass !

The Chiefs are not known as a great defensive unit, but were fast improving through the latter stages of the regular season. Head coach Andy Reid is a really smart guy and brave, knowing that he had to overhaul his team defensively and he brought in Steve Spagnuolo and allowed him "time", the Chiefs were awful last season ranked #31 for total defense, it was not much better for 10 weeks this time round. But something clicked in the trip to Mexico and since Week 11, the Chiefs have yielded just 11.5 points per game, a spectacular downturn from the 23.9 points per game they gave up through the first 10 weeks of the season. Teams ran all over Kansas City through those first 10 outings, to the tune of 148.1 yards per game, but that was down to 95 through the final weeks of the regular season.

In the post season they were 24-0 down to the Texans early in the 2nd quarter, they won 51-31 , they Texans had almost 35 minutes of possession, but could not run the ball when ahead. Next up the Chiefs were 17-7 down to the Titans again in the second quarter, but stopped Tennessee and Derrick Henry running the ball. That is the key they probably feel, slow the 49ers running game and they will win, but it is not that simple and the Niners have options on the ground few other teams do and will not desert the run, even in a shootout and can also go toe to toe in a high scoring game, witness the 48-46 win in New Orleans ( where Garoppolo had 349 passing yards, four touchdowns and a 131.7 passer rating ). Also, if the Chiefs give up another double digit lead, I doubt it will be third time lucky. I can pick some huge holes in the Texans and Titans defensively and did ahead of those games, but struggle to do so with the Niners and I suspect that Mahomes is going to be under more pressure than he has all season long. SF come into this game with 57 sacks, only six teams have come to the Super Bowl with 55+ and all have won and Mahomes is just not used to hitting the dirt as much as he is likely to here and it could unsettle him, like it did in the Championship game with the Patriots 12 months ago, he was sacked 4 times and as a result, only 18 first downs and 47 offensive plays for the Chiefs. The Pats also led by 14 early there, so three straight playoff games in which the Chiefs have trailed by 10+ points in the first half .

If the Niners get to Mahomes, KC cannot win, if the Chiefs slow the Niners run, which I think is unlikely, SF can still win a shootout, you always need a Plan B !

 

3 units San Francisco 49ers Money Line @ 2.13 Vegas Line/Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro.

 

Super Bowl MVP:

 
 
This is awarded to the "best" player on the day, well, not sure about that, it usually goes to the quarterback of the winning team and only one player from the losing team has ever picked up the trophy and that was way back in 1971 at Super Bowl V. They do not like losers in the US, second is first loser in their mind and the idea of giving the MVP to a member of the losing team has long since been ditched.
 
Pinnacle betting odds see the three favourites as ...........
 
2.16 Mahomes
3.54 Jimmy G
6.08 Raheem Mostert
 
The chance for Mahomes and Garoppolo to win are obvious, if KC win, I can see no way PM2 doesn't pick up the award, but SF are a running team and it is not so clear cut . I have found some eye catching stats for RB Raheem Mostert, who also brings a "Rocky" underdog vibe to the party which some voters and the NFL might like and, if the Niners win this on the ground Jimmy G might not be asked to do too much and if that is the case, can you give the award to someone who has basically just handed the ball off ?
 
Mostert is a real feel good story, he was a journeyman player for years who just could not find a home...........
 
Eagles......practice squad
Dolphins..........released after one month
Ravens .............cut after 2 months
Cleveland...........waived
Jets............ released after 6 days !
Bears ............released after 2 months
 
This is not a guy who misbehaved or performed badly, just never got a chance, he moved to the Niners at the end of 2016, spent 2017 injured, but for once, a team stuck with him, in 2018 after scoring his first TD and in a nationally televised game, he fractured his forearm and missed the rest of the season, you could not make this up !
 
This regular season it has all come good and he finished with 772 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns to go along with 14 receptions for 180 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns. In the Championship game against Green Bay he had 29 carries for a franchise postseason record of 220 yards and four rushing touchdowns ,second in franchise history only to NFL record-holder Ricky Watters, and tied with LeGarrette Blount for second most in NFL history. I also stumbled across this, which looks relevant given that the Chiefs "always" score 20+ points, in the last six games that the Niners have conceded 20+ points, Mostert has at least one TD in each (2 average) and was the top rusher in every game and if that trend continues, he has a real chance of picking up the MVP award.
 
He was born and raised in Florida, so this will be a homecoming of sorts and as he was dumped after just one month by the Dolphins, winning a  Super Bowl and MVP in their own stadium would surely taste extra sweet.
 
Last time a RB won MVP was Tyrell Davis (playing in his home city) of the Broncos who were coached by Mike Shanahan, father of Niners head coach Kyle.
 
 
1.25 units Raheem Mostert Super Bowl MVP 7.0-10.0 general quote...............obviously I feel those Pinnacle odds are closer to the true odds.
 
 
Obviously, there is not need to bet either of the above if you are on the Niners at 16-1 / 12-1 or both like many of us. In fact, you should probably be looking to guarantee a profit and hedge some of that upside , by backing the Chiefs and ensuring you get at least 10 points out of this should the unthinkable happen ! If you are coming into the game afresh it is a very different matter and for me, all the value is with the 49ers.
 
 
What Sportmarket Pro actually offer:
 

There is a full breakdown on what is offered by Sportmarket Pro (and it is pretty much all you will ever need and more !) on this link.

 

You bet, you need Sportmarket Pro !

 

Good Luck.
 
 

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