NFL betting tip: Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans..............Luck runs out and time for a Wake up call !
Sep 15, 2019
NFL: Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
Colts are coming from that overtime loss on the West Coast (see above) and are on the road again today in a key divisional match up. Last week they allowed 435 yards of offense and were terrible on third down defensively, they were "confident" in the run and stuck with it even when trailing quite late, they did not ask quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who has come in for Andrew Luck to do much and he completed 21 of 27 passes but for only 190 yards, with a VERY low depth of target average of 6.2 yards, all of which screams to me that they have limited confidence for now in him and the pass. The Titans destroyed the Browns last week ahead of which I wrote ........
We touched upon the Browns briefly in yesterday's notes they were one of the teams we expected to improve and they did so, from 0-16 to 7-8-1, they tied one, lost two games in overtime another couple closely and might well have recorded a winning season, but in the cold light of day, as good as they and rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield looked at times, it was still a losing season. The Browns have made some eyecatching signings such as Odell Beckham Jr and Kareem Hunt , but that pair bring with them a lot of baggage and there are some big egos to fit in and Hunt is still suspended and the Browns have a whole host of players either on injured reserve or suspended. OBJ is not 100% either, he has been wrapped in cotton wool by the Browns during preseason, holding him out of four games and team drills in practice because of a minor hip injury, the three-time Pro Bowler missed 16 games the past two seasons in New York because of leg issues. Yesterday I wrote ..............
I am starting with Tennesssee, they were last divisional champions in 2008 and are definitely overdue, it is a section where teams are evenly matched and the last 9 winners of the AFC South have averaged 10.33 wins, a 9-7 record has been good enough twice in that sequence and TT compliled exactly that win/ lose record (9-7) last season, so, any improvement is going to put them right in the mix. The defense ( see above) looks like it is already heading in the right direction, QB Marcus Mariota is in his final contract year and that should help concentrate the mind, he has yet to live up to his draft pedigree status, but has been given every help to do so. He has worked hard on fitness levels this off season after four separate injuries that have stopped him from so far playing a full campaign. Mariota has bulked up and added 3-5 kilos of muscle and been awarded additional offensive line protection and an upgrade in receiving corps, including Adam Humphries arriving after four years in Tampa and turning down the world champions New England Patriots to do so . They have to go well.
No issues with the Browns as favourites, but odds feel lopsided and circa 3.19 is too big for the road win IMO and Cleveland have some opening day demons to overcome having won just one (1-18-1) of the last 20 . Titans who do not lose many non divisional games heavily, visitors plus the points.
TT really enjoyed themselves, won 43-13 with Mariota putting up a QB rating of 133.3, veteran OL Cameron Wake (pictured) was a beast and named AFC defensive player of the week on his debut, goodness knows how many sacks he will get in this team ! He recorded 2.5 last week, one for a safety and will give a still novice QB who attracts sacks like bees to nectar, with 60 in his career from 555 passing attempts, to give that some context, Luck had 18 from 639 attempts last year. Wake and company will put enormous pressure on him and I don't think the Colts can even keep this close, let alone win with a one dimensional offense, so they will need to step up on the road in a hostile enviroment with a unknown quantity at the helm.
2.25 units Tennessee Titans -3.5 points 2.09 Pinnacle/Vegas/Sportmarket Pro.
Good Luck.
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