NFL betting tip: New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Oct 29, 2018
NFL: New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
This is one of those divisional game we discussed yesterday, difference in the AFC East is that the Patriots have dominated the section for so long ,that all that almost goes out of the window ! They have won the division in 14 of the last 15 seasons and finished 11-5 for the year they came up short ! They have posted double digit wins in all 15 campaigns, with 12 or more wins a dozen times. H2h wise, last 35 meetings have finished 31-4 in favour of New England, in Buffalo. the Patriots have won 13/14 with 9 wins coming by between 14-46 points, which is all just incredible.
The Bills were pretty good last year, but still lost both meetings by 20+ points. This year they have regressed and gave supporters the heads up about that as likely to be the case in pre season, with Buffalo, like the Raiders, prepared to take a step backwards to move (hopefully) 2-3 forward in the next year or two. Ahead of an early season home game with the Chargers I wrote ..................
The Chargers actually posted 541 yards of offense, Rivers threw for 424 and 3 TD's one INT, four receivers had 81 yards +, he received very decent protection and LA put up 33 first downs, a big number, only allowing 19 for the explosive Chiefs and you should remember that the Chargers made the pre season notes in terms of one of the three most improved in FD's allowed. Now they are on the road to the Bills who were absolutely awful last week, which I discussed on Thursday............
The Ravens started their own season with little more than a training work out beating the Buffalo Bills 47-3 in Baltimore. The Bills were supposed to go backwards this year in order to move forward in upcoming seasons and the franchise spoke about that and tried to lower expectations coming in, but this was way below acceptable levels and then some ! Buffalo lost the first three quarters all by 11 + points and the 4th only by 7 as most of the Ravens were already showered and changed. The Bills had 10 first downs and 153 yards of offense, the two QB's combined for 11 of 33 passes for 98 yards, no TD's and two INT and those are just beyond awful and unacceptable numbers. When a team is losing by 40 + points you usually expect them to at least be able to but up a few yards of offense as their opponent will ease off, but even that was not the case, I see no positives at all for the Bills and as such cannot give the Ravens too much credit for the win, however emphatic, it is not their fault that Buffalo were so bad, and Baltimore might be Super Bowl material, but we have to see them have a game first !
The Ravens did not boost the formline by graciously losing to the Bengals by 11 points on Thursday and I do not see how the Bills are going to stop Rivers and co posting 28 + points today as a minimum. We already know that Buffalo are going with their rookie QB Josh Allen who was not deemed ready 7 days ago. Many college fottball watchers considered him too green, too inaccurate and it seems like the Bills agreed, but now think he is good to go ! That seems wrong on so many levels, anyway, the Bills have terrible receivers , traded away most of their talent on the offensive line and are now asking a "wild " throwing 22 yo to turn this around on his debut !
Chargers beat the Bills by 30 last season , posting 54 points and did not have to even be good that day. Buffalo have to improve hugely in almost all departments with a rookie at the helm and even then LA underperform IMO, for the Bills to win.
The Bills lost that 31-20 , not too bad and won 2 of their next three, at home to the Titans and somehow and incredibly by 27-6 away to the Vikings, they are 2-5 scoring only 21 points total in the other four defeats which all came on the road. This is only their 3rd home start, their first divisional game and, were the unthinkable to happen, they would not be out of divisional contention, we know how that is going to end, but nothing wrong with dreaming.
Patriots are 5-2, but have not been their usual selves yet this season and have only kept the Dolphins who just did not show up that day to under 20 points, giving up 28.7 on average in the other six, with three of those opponents having losing records. They are ranked 25th defensively for yardage given up against the pass, 24th versus the run, 25th overall. That , combined with their two home performances should give the Bills some hope and they and their fans will be fired up for this, it is the first time they have hosted a MNF game in a decade and they have not won one since 1999, inbetween those two dates they hosted Brady and the Pats on Monday night and lost 56-10 !
This can go two ways IMO, both probably end with a Pats win, either the Bills are fired up and keep this close, to do so they probably need close to 20 points, but Buffalo have scored 16.5 in their two home starts and both opponents have put up significantly better defensive numbers than New England, both against the run and pass, secondly, forget all that, normal service is resumed and the Patriots win huge and put up 35 + points which they have done in their last four starts this season and numerous times versus the Bills ,the hosts have also given up that number three times in 2018, albeit on the road. Either scenario ends in points and the line is set low enough for us to get involved............
1.75 units "over" 45.5 points 2.07 Pinnacle/Vegas Line/Sportmarket Pro.
Good Luck.
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