NFL betting tip: Washington Redskins @ New Orleans Saints
Oct 08, 2018
NFL: Washington Redskins @ New Orleans Saints
Pre season I wrote this ..................
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Ok, I am going to try and write some thoughts for the new season without saying too much ! I want to discuss teams as and when we preview games and not get too tied to too many teams too early (notes brief this week). I am putting up a couple of bets on the Waashington Redskins, I have had to temper things slightly with the RB issue (read on), but odds are massive and we have to get involved to some degree. I also touched upon a couple of other potential improvers.
For the last few years I have been tracking teams who have improved significantly in certain categories from one season to the following one, highlighting them as a big potential improver in the third season. Chief amongst these and the only one I wish to discuss today, is first downs given up per game, reasons are pretty obvious, it limits time your opponent has with the ball and increases the possessions you get. The NFL is more of an offensive game nowadays, but you need the ball to score (!) and once teams have made improvement in this area , they can then concentrate more on other parts of their game, it sets them up in other words. Going into 2017 three teams were highlighted in this category, the Eagles who gave up 4.0 fewer FD's in 2016 than they did in 2015, Giants also 4.0 and the Jags 3.5 and they were all big numbers/improvements.
The more eagle eyed amongst you will have already noticed that the Giants stunk the house out in 2017(!), but if you think Leicester City's Premier League title winning season of 15-16, when every single thing went in their favour, in reverse, then you have the Giants last year ! 20 players on injured reserve at one time , five all with season ending ankle injuries alone including star revceivers Odell Beckham Jr and Brandon Marshall and Linebacker BJ Goodson, three players suspended...... all cornerbacks, coaching and administartive error after error and that is only the tip of the iceberg, if it could go wrong it did and then it usually happened once or twice more ! Also , they were coming from a 11-5 year in 2016, so any improvement was always going to be limited and not what we were/are looking for. Jacksonville were 3-13 in 2016 so were prime candidates to improve and finished 10-6 and made the Championship game. The Eagles went from 7-9 to 13-3 and won the whole show !
The big potential improvers thrown up this time around in this category are the Chargers who gave up 3.0 first downs less and were 9-7 in 2017, the "woeful" Browns 3.1 less per game and coming off a 0-16 campaign and the Redskins 3.8 and 7-9. Obviously these numbers alone are not much good to us, they are starting points, but you would not need to be Einstein to appreciate that the only way is up for the Browns. I will discuss both them and the LA Chargers at the weekend or next week, for now, it is the Redskins I want to look at.
First up, I have to say that they play in probably the most competitive division in football, with big rivalry between all four teams and it includes the defending Super Bowl champion in the Eagles, the Dallas Cowboys and the already discussed Giants who can only really improve. But, this is a section which has provided 12 Super Bowl winners since it was formed, including in two of the last seven years and we know that anyone coming from the NFC East is going to be competitive in the post season. Also, this is not a division to repeat and no team has won the section back to back since the 2004 Eagles and it is going to be doubly tough for Philly to do so as "World" champions ! Washington won in 2012 and 2015 and are due again with that three year rotation !
For me, they were a very good 7-9 team (especially early season) which I will return to, but what I also like is their schedule, they do not play a divisional opponent until Week 7 which allows time to build some momentum and iron out the kinks and those divisional games are just so important and you want to be at your best when playing them. They also only make one trip West and that comes on opening day when you have had months to prepare, last year they had four trips cross country, including two to LA where they had not played for 23 years !
This will be their 5th season under head coach Jay Gruden, who will be keen to match older brother Jon who already has a Super Bowl title, Jay was 4-12 in his debut season, 9-7 (won division ) in his second , 8-7-1 in the third, 7-9 last year, so needs to find an additional 2-4 wins from the last three which is not to onerous and both Jacksonville and Philly showed more than that level of improvement. Gruden signed a two year contract extension last year , is "good" through 2020 and being given time to build, but it feels like this year he and the Skins need to produce and a winning season is a must.
Last season they played their first five road games v teams who had an average of 10.8 wins in 2017, four of whom won their divsion and Washington won two, lost another in overtime , led in one loss by 10 points early and by 11 entering the 4th quarter in another and averaged 24 points pg, it was very fine margins through a super tough schedule. They ran out of steam around Week 12 which came following a overtime road loss and then divisional game on a short week,but it all looks a little more schedule friendly this season.
They were another team hard hit by injury and at poor times (prior to big games) and ahead of a Monday night game with the Eagles I wrote ............
..........and that is without the Redskins issues......... their starting running back has had only 29 carries this year, the defensive line will be rotated by injury, the secondary is makeshift and they could be without 2 starting cornerbacks, Josh Norman is definitely out, Bashaud Breeland will be a gametime decision, kicker Nick Rose will be making his NFL debut in a Monday Night game with the whole of the football world watching.
A few weeks later ................
.........the Skins won a low scoring contest, keeping the Seahawks without a field goal or touchdown for three quarters .Three things are clear, the Redskins are a team in transition, but when they are good, they can compete with the best and also their injury situation, which has left them decimated at times is starting to clear and their offensive line which has been without four starters is now close to full strength.
As bad as the situation was with the Giants the Skins can lay claim, it is a title no one wants, to being the most injured team in 2017 !
The jinx has not left yet and they lost rookie running back Derrius Guice for the entire season and a couple of veterans in this position are also injured, but they have options and too much has been made of this IMO and they also signed veteran and all time great RB Adrian Peterson on a one year deal. He has had a fantastic career, but I have to hold my hands up and say that I was not convinced about him last year, but, as a some time option and not the main focus of their play, or maybe even ground game, I think he is a good addition and it could turn out to be inspired. He also started six games for the Cardinals last year whom Washington face this weekend, so will be comfortable in surroundings and will have had a good and close look at the opposition and he has actually been named already as starter and I am expecting a big showing from him.
The offensive line which has massive potential comes into the campaign at full strength and Washington will have so much more success blocking this upcoming season, that along with the mobility of newly acquired quarterback Alex Smith is good news for a team we know can put points on the board. Defensively they had trouble stopping the run, but the return of
Jonathan Allen (lost after five games) , a fully fit Matt Ioannidis and addition of Da'Ron Payne is huge and a previous weakness could be a major strength this year. Josh Norman is one of, maybe the, best cornerbacks in the NFL but was never 100% last year, he has unfinished business and is healthy enough to get it done this season, he will get help from Montae Nicholson one of a number of big potential second season improvers to go along with a host of returnees and it it not going to take much to turn them into a contender.
I liked Washington in 2016, felt they showed massive potential, but just could not build on it last year with all the injuries, they look set to do themselves justice this time round and I like the swap of Smith for talented Kirk Cousins. Smith is a veteran at 34 but 34 in the new 28 in terms of modern day QB's and he is a winner, with a 69-31-1 record since 2011 and looking for a 8th winning season in a row. It was Smith's plays on video that Redskins passing game coordinator Kevin O’Connell was often using to explain situations to his own QB's, it was these he returned to when it became clear they would have to replace Cousins and O'Connell said that something jumped out at him which was that, reagrdless of situation he was always " in complete control and command " and he and head coach Gruden said it was this "serenity" that wanted to bring to the Redskins. The QB has his detractors and many consider him not aggressive enough for the post season, but we and Washington can worry about that then. He is good with the ball, not as a runner like Cam Newton , but in extending plays and just buying an extra second or two, in a game where extra split seconds are viewed like gold. Washington think they have upgraded, especially after seeing him close up and I will leave the last word with O'Connell who said that Smith "constantly made the right calls, his brilliance came after leaving the huddle when he assessed his opponent’s defensive formation and changed the play accordingly ."
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The Skins started against the Cardinals and got off to a flyer winning in Arizona 24-6 and allowing the Cardinals nothing much aerially or on the ground. Alex Smith did what Alex Smith does and was very tidy and composed and led a very balance offense with Adrian Petersen looking as sharp as we have seen for some time, he ran for 96 yards and a TD and the defense looked stingy with standout potential for 2018.
They then lost at home to the Colts which was hugely disappointing, but then beat the Packers by 14. Washington really ought to be 3-0, they have put up great numbers through the three starts which indicate they should be 3-0, one commentator who's opinion I respect greatly, said that he had seen them a lot in training camp and early season and that this was "a very good team with no stand out weaknesses", which is hugely encouraging. Today will be tough and their biggest "ask" so far, but if they could win they would have a 75% win rate at the top of the NFC East, with no one else on better than 40%. They are coming off a bye week, which is usually an advantage ( a good one) and have had 15 days to prepare solely for the Saints. H2h wise they have scored between 31 and 47 points in the last three h2h meetings with the Saints, including a win and OT loss in New Orleans ( blowing a 14-point lead in the final six minutes of the fourth quarter ). The home side are 3-1, but have struggled in both home games, fortunately edging past the Browns and losing and shipping 48 points to Tampa Bay.
Adrian Petersen will be up for this after "failing" in the Big Easy, where he was not given long ( 4 games, one start, 27 total rushing attempts !) to prove himself and he is averaging 3.13 yards after contact per attempt with the Skins, which is close to his glory days mark of 3.30 yards. Skins have limited opponents to just 14.7 points and to 278 yards per game and whilst that will be tested by the 4th ranked offense of the saints, if they can just slow Drew Brees and co down a little and establish the run, it will give Smith time to fully test a poor Saints secondary, then I can see this going down to the wire as a minimum.
In the last four seasons Brees is 1-4 on MNF losing all three in NO, with the win coming versus a 5-11 team, Smith is 3-1 and it includes a demolition of the Patriots and pretty perfect performance from the QB, with a 144.4 passer rating ! Not much chance of Smith suffereing nerves on national television with that in the memory bank, infact, he should thrive.
I like the Redskins, my heart says to win at odds of 3.25, my head wants to take the points.Personally I will probably go with the former, but officially ..............
1.75 units Washington Redskins +5.5 points 1.99 Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro.
Good Luck.
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