In terms of how these opening playoff games traditionally play out, I started by looking at the last 18 seasons, which gives us a big sample of 78 games, they have featured 12 between teams with an identical W/L record, the other 66 have been split 36-30 in favour of the team with the better regular season record. Surprisingly, when that advantage is two games or more, it is even closer, with a 18-16 split . 

 

In terms of home advantage, which has long been considered very significant in the postseason, it is "just" 42-36 in favour of the home team.

 

I looked in more detail at the last seven seasons which is 38 games (six per year since 20/21), home teams are 19-19 and teams with a superior record are 18-15, teams playing at home AND with a better W/L record are a poorish 11-12.

 

Not as many games are as close as you might expect and only two games have gone to overtime since 2011 (50 games). Of those last 38 , only 13 were decided by 1-6 points, 17 by 10+ , 12 by 14+ and six by at least 20 points. Meaning that almost half as many again were decided by 2+ touchdowns as were by under a single touchdown.

 

13 have produced 50+ points total and 10 of those have been in the last three seasons and both teams have also scored 20+ in (a different) 13 games.

 

When two double digit game winning teams face off and there are four of those this weekend, it is 5-4 in favour of the home team in the last three seasons ( since the return to six wild card games) and eight of those (all bar one) have been decided by 6+ points.

 

 

This is the 4th season running that the Buffalo Bills have hosted a wild card game, they are 3-0 and have scored 27 points in each at an average of 36.0 pg.

 

The Bucs are hosting in the Monday night slot for the second year running and lost heavily (14-31) to a NFC East team (Cowboys) last season and face another in the Eagles this time round.

 

Rams are looking to win a third straight W/C game under Sean McVay.

 

 

The Browns won in Texas 36-22 very recently, in Week 16 (December 24th) . They led by 29 points in the 4th quarter, but Houston were without their starting QB in CJ Stroud for that game. 

 

Miami lost 21-14 to the Chiefs in Week 9, that was officially a home game for KC but it was played in Frankfurt. Chiefs led 21-0 at the half, at which time they started loading up the plane and Andy Reid confirmed his early dinner reservation.

 

The Eagles won 25-11 in Tampa in Week 3, that was also over early with Philly up by 22 points at the start of the 4th quarter. They had over 200 yards rushing that day and despite Jalen Hurts struggling through the air, they were actually a net +298 yards over the Bucs offensively, a net +15 first downs and had the ball an additional 18 minutes.

 

 

Good luck!