Staking change for 2019.....................
Mar 06, 2019
Staking change for 2019.
I changed the staking plan for what had previously been 1.75 unit selections for 2019 (from January 1st) and doubtless some of you have noticed that even amongst the FTV previews. I originally considered a more complicated system (differences within leagues/sports), but have kept things simple and what was 1.75 units in the past, will now be given a stake of between 1.75 and 3.5 units, this is a little more like the very first staking plan from many years ago. 3.5 units will be VERY rare and even 3+ unusual, but there will be more in the 2.0-2.75 range and all dictated, as always, by the difference in my own and actual odds. Early days but this has worked out very well so far, for example, both Australian Open tennis 2.5 unit suggestions (max given during the tournament) won, one at odds of 3.35 and it is worth a look at that (Pliskova to beat Serena) ..........
At these odds my hands are completely tied and I have to bet Karolina Pliskova and strongly, as I could not really make her any bigger than a 40% chance to win this and if anything, I have probably understaked.
I sided with Pliskova for her R4 match up with Garbine Muguruza, that had much to do with the Spaniard's record at that stage of hardcourt slams and against taller players.......
Karolina Pliskova struggled in slams until making the US Open final in 2016, but is 6-1 in R4 since then and has made the QF of her last five hard court slams, looking to make it 6 /6 today, 3/3 in Melbourne. Garbine Muguruza has made the last 8 of 7 slams, reaching three finals, posting two wins (grass and clay), but is just 1-3 at this stage in either NY or Melbourne, with her sole win over a player ranked #78. Despite beating Venus in the Wimbledon final, Muguruza has also traditionally struggled against fellow tall players and some, just do not like playing others, she is 9-21 (30% win rate) against those 1.83m +, Pliskova is 15-9 (62.5%) in that category, including winning the last four on this surface v those ranked top 10 which is very impressive.
Pliskova won 6-3,6-1 and is now in her 6th straight hard court slam quarter, which is fantastic consistency. Things do not get any easier from here on in, but she has a win over Serena(the pair have surprisingly met only three times) and they are 1-1 in slams, both in New York. Pliskova played a very solid game against Muguruza, made just 3 unforced errors , along with 23 winners and her average speed serve was very high, Serena can serve bigger, but Pliskova can keep hers at a similar/higher more consistent speed for longer. I expected Serena to beat Halep, whom she matches up well with and who had/has some issues, in two sets, but in her previous round I also said ....
However, those two both have a soft underbelly and against Williams the younger, you have to have some belief and hang in there, only then will the chances come. As odd as it sounds , Serena is fragile and not the most confident person, but that is almost always masked by her huge talent and athletic ability, but those doubts are in there somewhere !
At a set and a break down those chances did come for Halep and she took it to a decider. It is easy to know what to do to beat Serena, just not simple to implement, hang on in there, don't let her race away and, prolong points. Halep was winning most rallies beyond 5-6 points and Williams making a lot of errors, especially on the backhand. Pliskova will surely like her chances in longer points and also has the big game to win her share of the short ones too.
KP has now won nine straight matches inluding the Brisbane International title and has improved round by round here, she likes the hot weather and playing day time and in the heat, is more of an advantage for her than the GOAT. I cannot believe that Serena doesn't have scars from the beating she took and her behaviour at the US Open and she has barely played since, Halep was the first "name" she has faced subsequently and she had trouble seeing it out and with her second serve giving cause for concern and Pliskova will get chances, and the Czech believes she is a better player now than the one who beat Serena in two sets at the 2016 US Open. BTW guess who Serena beat in the round before losing to Pliskova in NY, correct (!), Halep in three sets.
Pliskova won in three sets.
That was a great preview, it would be false modesty for me to claim otherwise, there are lines within that will repay re-reading/following many times this season and whilst it would be equally silly to claim that all previews are of the same quality, many are and the pearls amongst the oysters are worthwhile hunting out and some, are worth the monthly cost of subscription on their own.
Good luck !
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