World Cup Qualifiers betting tip: UEFA: Armenia- Kazakhstan
Mar 26, 2017
World Cup Qualifiers: UEFA: Armenia- Kazakhstan
I have spoken often in recent years about Armenia having major defensive issues, but also a little more offensive threat than they are given credit for and that is still the case, we can start today by returning to my notes on their trip to play the Czech Republic last summer, they are reproduced below the "good luck" sign off and I have highlighted a few key lines/passages in that. They lost 3-0 and their last three games have followed suit ( going over), losing 2-1 in Poland (down to ten men inside 30 minutes) , 5-0 at home to Romania where they again had a man sent off and this time inside 3 minutes and beating Montenegro 3-2 most recently, where they fought back from two down.
Where to start ? Obviously ill discipline is big issue, some of the defending in the Romania game was suicidal and incredibly painful to watch, they were close to holding out in Poland , only conceding in added time, but again, three goals came in those games and key ones at defining periods (see below), came from poorly defended set pieces. On the plus side, they do keep pressing foward, even at four down and with 10 men to Romania they were creating chances and play some very pleasing on the eye football at times. The win in the last game was the debut for new head coach and former player Artur Petrosyan. That was celebrated wildly, with good support from the stands, even when trailing and might signal an improved run and this is the easiest game they will face, versus the only team below them in the group, but those defensive issues were still present and it is very difficult to see Armenia keeping a clean sheet against anyone.
Kazakhstan will doubtless set up defensively, but have conceded 14 in their last four away starts, including five to Montenegro, although they did score in both Cyprus and Denmark, but are so much stronger at home, for obvious reasons and games quickly run away from them on the road, when they are making the (always) long trip and once the first is conceded. Both to score, with a Henrikh Mkhitaryan (pictured) led Armenia to win.
1.25 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.35 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
International Friendly: Czech Republic - Armenia (written August 31st)
I previewed Armenia's Euro 2016 qualification game with Albania ten months ago and in those notes, spoke about their attacking nature and defensive issues .........
Albania arrive here on the back of consecutive home defeats to Portugal and Serbia, the latter in midweek where they played in a very toxic atmosphere with snipers on rooftops around the stadium , they failed to score in either and conceded three times across the two matches after the 90th minute. They played for a draw in both, today that will not do, three points and only three points are required to ensure they qualify for a major championship for the first time in their history and that will surely concentrate minds and is a massive incentive. As a fall back, they do have a guaranteed third place and spot in the playoffs, which might calm nerves slightly, but they will be an underdog over those two legs regardless of whom they face and today is their golden opportunity. They are missing a couple of players, but cannot use that as an excuse and they are probably happy to be playing this on the road, where they have looked more comfortable and have already claimed a point in Denmark and famous win in Portugal in group games, they also posted a draw in Rennes and home win over the French in recent friendly starts and can clearly raise their game against the stronger european teams and today have to do it versus one of the lesser lights. Armenia have nothing but pride to play for and are naturally offensive minded, something we have discussed many times previously and both of which should help the Albanian cause today.
Ahead of Armenia's home game with Denmark last month I wrote .....Hosts have been a favourite of ours for many years, landing some very big odds bets and going close to qualifying for both Euro 2012 and 2014 World Cup, they were also paired with Denmark in the latter and recorded a famous 4-0 win in Copenhagen, but lost the return here in Yerevan, a result which if reversed, would have seen them finish second in a tough group. That defeat kind of ended the brief golden period of Armenian international football and they have struggled over the last two years and are way out of contention this time round, with just a single point from six qualification games. They lost 2-0 to Serbia, the other team with nothing to play for on Friday and have now suffered defeat in nine of their last ten starts, in their last 11 they have not kept a clean sheet, have conceded two or more on nine occasions and three in five, including at home to Portugal and France, away to Germany and against the might of the UAE and Algeria, notes from the match with the Germans which took place last summer are reproduced below, they lost that 6-1. Defensively they are obviously struggling and the goals and talent of Yura Movsisyan and Henrikh Mkhitaryan are no longer enough to keep them in games and the next generation has not yet developed, although they do have a couple of very promising youngsters. We might see am improved showing from them today in front of their own supporters, they midfield is strong (going forward), but the defence is a shambles, they could have conceded six to Serbia ( who hit the woodwork twice) and were unable to defend a single cross into the box. In the Germany notes we spoke about a vulnerability from set pieces/corners and not only does this appear not to have been addressed, but to have got worse.
They did keep a clean sheet finally in that game, but that was a fairly open encounter and I doubt that the hosts have suddenly found the solution to their defensive woes and I have to feel that the greatly more motivated visitors can find a way to edge this. Conspiracy theorists will like the fact that Albania have been backed for this match, after drifting in betting for the Serbia game, but that means odds are now shorter than I would ideally like. However, I suspect we might be able to do better "in running" and I would like to take 1.5 units Albania -0.5 ball if the quote reached 2.25, as long as they are not already leading and we are playing 11 v 11.
Armenia have conceded 11 goals in qualification, but none inside the 23rd minute and nine have come after the 54th. They are the home side and will not want to lie down too easily and there is a good chance that the higher quote will be available early in the game.
Albania won that 3-0 and I would be a little stunned today if Armenia managed a clean sheet in a meaningless friendly, when it will be all about Sunday's World Cup qualifier for both teams. The Czech Republic have a lot of issues to sort out from Euro 2016 and I doubt they will have been able to do so in a couple of days, especially as they have lost ten players from the Euro squad for a variety of reasons including injury, suspension and retirement, the loss of both centre backs and star goalkeeper Petr Cech is huge and they are missing players with just shy of 600 international appearances today !
All the Aremnia quality centres around Henrikh Mkhitaryan and they will be mindful they need him for the weekend, but this looks a good chance for them to repeat their 2-1 win here in 2013 ( all four h2h meetings have gone "over") and I see this as a potential upset. Only problem is that when Armenia concede, a second or third can often quickly follow, which makes the handicap line a little less attractive, so ........
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